January 23, 2008

Do I hear $250 Trillion for Mobile Advertising? Going once, going twice...

Those wacky research analysts are at it again with their clueless enthusiasm over mobile advertising.

Here's a quote from a recent article from RCR Wireless News:

"Market research firms seem to be falling over themselves in an effort to cram the most zeroes into their projections for mobile advertising revenues. But for traditional advertisers — you know, the ones with really big budgets — 2008 will be much more about watching and learning than about spending.

The Kelsey Group predicts the U.S. market for wireless advertising will grow from $33.2 million last year to $1.4 billion by 2012, marking an impressive 112% annual growth rate. ABI Research this week issued its own sky-high forecast, claiming that worldwide mobile marketing is expected to explode from $1.8 billion in 2007 to more than $24 billion in 2013.

A handful of other firms peg today’s global market at $2 billion to $3 billion, exploding into revenues of $14 billion or so by 2011. And IDC stated breathlessly a year ago that “The potential actually exceeds the hype” for mobile ads."

So who's right? $1.4B? $24B? or $14B? The right answer is whichever one that makes your Excel spreadsheet show the result you are looking for.

I'd say go all out with my prediction of $250 Trillion. Prove that I'm wrong! ;-)

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