Mobile Advertising Will Be A $250 Trillion Biz By Year 2010 (..NOT!!!)

Really. Why not even $500 trillion or $750 trillion? The wacky market research analysts are all over the place with their forecasts. And even worse, lot of industry folks quote these numbers in Powerpoint presentations.

I'm a bit more pessimistic on mobile advertising. I do think it'll grow but not at the pace and magnitude the self serving analysts project.

1. We have yet to crack the nut on best way to serve advertising on the mobile phone. Much of what exists today is a smaller version of what's on the desktop. On a mobile phone with a 3" screen and limited typing, this doesn't translate very well. Even on a device like the iPhone, screen real estate is limited.
2. Mobile phones are primarily designed for voice communications. After voice, they've been adapted to handle text messaging. But web browsing and graphic navigation is difficult to do on a mobile phone. I do think that we'll start to see phone designs that incorporate advertising on the device (secondary display for advertisements, built-in buttons for call-to-action, etc).
3. Little current demand for mobile advertising. There's really no killer service on the mobile browser that carries enough ad inventory. Ad buyers have yet to step up and make big mobile only commitments. It's still in the experimental stage for most advertisers and Mobile is generally purchased as a small give-away part of a large ad package which may include online, print and television.
4. I know what the surveys say but I really don't think consumers want advertising on their phone. At least not the way it's being served now (related to my reason #1 and #2). And until we can solve #1, #2, and #3, consumers aren't going to be happy when they have to get past an ad to make a phone call or quickly look up information on their browser.
   

"Give sh*t away and everyone shows up..."

We had an employee event today where the Mobile team was doing a dog & pony show. I got there towards the end and noticed it was very crowded. I was pretty impressed until I found out they were raffling off an iPhone every hour which is the real reason why everyone was there. Soon as they had the drawing, the room thinned out and got crowded again an hour later for the next drawing.

It used to be iPod giveaways that drew the crowd so it's natural that we start giving away an iPhone. While it's really great to win an iPhone, it kinda sucks since you have to sign up for $2K of service fees from AT&T to get the device activated.

I sometimes wonder what percentage of iPods sold were part of giveaways to draw interest.

As one senior exec put it "Give sh*t away and everyone shows up..."

Perspective gaps between AOL's Have's and the Have-Not's

This blog entry from AOL's vice chairman, Ted Leonsis and comments it drew from AOL's employees is another sad example of the skewed views between those with millions their bank accounts and the Have-Not's (the employees).

I have a lot of respect for Ted and all he's accomplished. He's probably the last executive at AOL employees still feel they can relate to. But it is sad, how disconnected one can become.

Santa Jobs, I want a 180GB iTouch!

I've completely filled my 30GB iPod. I've downloading and ripping CDs like it's going out style (thanks to BitTorrent and Lala.com) . I've had to remove all album cover images, videos, eBooks and photos. Just music.

I know I'll never get through my entire collection in a sitting but going digital with my music is the way to go.

If I was to upgrade, moving to another iPod with a bigger drive isn't that appealing since it's essentially the same hardware. If I'm going to upgrade, what I'd like is a 180GB iTouch but unfortunately, it only goes up to 8GB.

Maybe by Christmas, Mr. Jobs and Santa will fulfill my wish.

Mac vs PC. Just get over it...

People get all religious over this topic especially the Apple lovers. Just get over it folks. It all depends on what you are used to and what you use the computer for. Being a long time PC user, I tried to switch over to a Mac and I didn't find it easier to use. It had its own idiosyncrasies just like Windows did. My first Mac crashed so bad the first week that it had to be completely swapped out. I don't doubt that overall, Macs are probably more stable but is it all that great? I certainly don't think so. If it was, it would certainly have more than 3% marketshare. I do enjoy my iPod and soon my iPhone but please...

...just get over it, Apple lovers.

ps. My colleague, Alan, has a good post of his assessment of Macs on his blog here.

Harry Potter movies really do suck

After each H.P. movie, I ask myself "That movie sucked! How could so many people like it?". So I finally went through a marathon round of H.P.. And after having read all 7 books, I think the movies still suck. Okay, they suck a bit less now that I read the books.

• I admit, I did find the books entertaining to read. But it was obvious that Book #7, Deathly Hallow, was written with the full intent to be produced into a movie. Typical Good vs. Evil, the final confrontation, the big battle, death of main characters, struggle of the heroine, and all that. Sort of cheapened the book in my opinion.
  
• Anyone else see the similarities between H.P. and LOTR? Wormtail = Gollum, Voldemort = Sauron, H.P. = Frodo, Dumbledore = Gandalf (both sort of get reborn), Ron = Sam, so on and so on.
  
• Contrary to popular opinion, I don't think Ms. Rowling was a genius to "tie" everything together in the final book. Rather, she was very clever to make shit up in a desperate attempt to fill in all the gaps she left behind in the previous books. But I do give her credit for her creativity.
  
• I watched the first four movies again on DVD after reading the book. It definitely sucked less since I mentally filled in all the obvious holes in the plot from having read the book. And this is why the book readers enjoy the movie more than the non-readers.
• But the fact that she's filthy rich makes all my points complete useless...
  

Will I see movie #6 and #7 when they come out? Of course. I'm invested in H.P. now. I'll probably get my daughter to read it once she's old enough. I'll just do my best to fill in the all plot holes and overlook the fact that Harry and the rest of the regular cast are looking a bit too old for their parts.

Accio Wand!

Accio Jessica Biel!

Accio Remote Control!

Accio Beer!

Accio Ham Sandwich!

What the heck, Dumbledore? I'll never get my OWL...

Expecto Petronum!!!

Best Ramyun (Ramen) in the world is...

I'm a big ramyun (aka ramen) fan. Once in a while, it really hits the spot. You almost have to be if you are from Korea or Japan. My favorite for years has been the spicy ramen from Korean called Shin Ramyun (vs Ramen which is more Japanese) . You can find it in the States at most Asian markets and some major chain supermarkets.

So I'm in London in July and what do I see advertised at the market across the street from the hotel?

Steve: Koreans do kick butt. Even in London :-)

Huh?!?

I hope she won because Miss S. Carolina doesn't sound like she has a bright future ahead in academics.

Sorry but iPhone is just a nice phone with a fancy UI

Folks try to convince me that iPhone is a paradigm shift but I say it's a nice phone with a fancy UI. Look, I'm definitely impressed by the size, the touch-sensor screen, iPod integration, rich browser, blah-blah-blah but I think Apple needs to do more to make me think it's more than a phone. (If Jobs takes an iPoop on his iToilet, which is white of course, there will probably be some Apple nut screaming "Jobs just gave us a Paradigm Sh*t!")

Here's what would have make the iPhone a real paradigm shift for me:

1. unlocked device with no ties to a carrier (this is by far the worst sin from Apple)
   
2. removable SIM
   
3. 3G support
4. min 30GB storage
5. removable battery
   
6. priced under $500
7. fully open interface for 3rd party apps
8. some creative way of adding a real qwerty keyboard would definitely be a plus
   

It took a few revs for the iPod to really get it right. Maybe it'll take at least another rev for the iPhone to hit its mark.

* update (9/11/07): Okay, so I don't actually own an iPhone but have played with it. But I just found out that I'll be getting one through work for evaluation. No way I'd buy one with my own money but can't turn this one down. Who knows? Maybe the "fancy UI" will win me over. I'll post an update soon.

An American Tradition (not baseball or apple pie)

Stopping at a McDonald's for a bathroom break while on a roadtrip has got to be an unofficial American tradition. Sure there are rest stops, Burger Kings, but I know most of us have all stopped at a McDonald's for a little relief.

(Word of warning: Stay away from McDonald's posted on Exit 24 on Hwy 78 traveling through New Jersey Pennsylvania (off of Rt 22 in Whitehouse Station, NJ). I know it's New Jersey, but it has to be the worst McDonald's ever. Bathrooms that smelled of urine, feces on the toilets, you get the meaning...)

Back from Italy - Part 1

Italy was great. It's been a while since I've taken a 2 week vacation but it was just enough time to get some sightseeing in and not feel too hurried. The house we rented was in a town called Grutti in Umbria south of Tuscany.















Here are some highlights:

• Got hooked on Harry Potter series. Finished the first 2 books in 3 days. Ended up book 3, 4, 5 and 6 in Italy just so I could have something to read. Finished Deathly Hallows a week after the trip. More on my take on the Harry Potter soon.
• Thank goodness I remembered how to drive a manual transmission. Had a small Opel Punto wagon. It was a fun little car. Italians don't ever signal but they definitely respect the meaning of the fast lane and immediately move over to let a faster car pass not like us stupid Americans who think they own the lane and everyone must go around them.
  
• Almost each morning for breakfast, went up to the town square on top of the hill to pick up fresh bread and salami. Not sure how our friends from Holland can eat the same thing every darn morning. It was tasty the first few days but got a bit tiring towards the end.
• As expected the food was great. Had the best meals at the local town pizzeria. But after 2 weeks of Italian, definitely was ready for a change of cuisine.
• Americans are lazy. It was easy to pick us out from the group of tourists. They are the ones that put no effort in speaking Italian and expect everyone else to speak English. They think that being American gives them some undeserved privilege: "Whadaya mean you ain't got no automatic cars? Don't ya have a station wagon or a S-U-V or something?"
  

More to come...